Last week, I revealed the inaugural edition of the That's What HE Said expert panel's predictions for the new baseball season.
Now, with one week under our belts in the 2007 campaign, I offer a few revised prognostications you might be surprised to see come to fruition by the time September rolls around.
So without any further adieu and in no particular order, I offer my 10 bold predictions for the new MLB season:
1. Ryan Howard won't break the 40-HR mark – The reigning MVP took the baseball world by storm last year, belting the offerings of opposing pitchers over the fence an impressive 58 times – even more impressive when you consider he was a part-time player (sitting against lefties) to start the season. Well hopefully, he enjoyed it… it won't happen again. Don’t get me wrong. It's nothing against the slugger's skills. But with absolutely no protection in the Phillies lineup, pitchers would be crazy to give him anything over the plate. On the bright side, 180 walks is very possible, as is a 38 home run season.
2. The Mets will miss the playoffs – Last year's owners of the NL's best record have a disgusting lineup – no doubt about it. But that's where my faith in the Metropolitans ends. With Pedro out until at least August, Glavine, El Duque, John Maine and Ollie Perez will be hard pressed to keep this team in the race. Yes I know they currently have the best ERA in baseball. Check back in a month and you won't see the same stat. Look for the Braves (who we'll see again later in this list) to pull away from the NL East pack, with the Wild Card coming from the surprisingly competitive NL Central. Having said that…
3. St. Louis will finish fourth in the NL Central – With news of Chris Carpenter's arm trouble, this becomes more plausible than bold. In any case, their rotation was shaky at best to begin with and their bullpen is a mess. Prince Albert can only do so much. Cubs, Brewers and Astros will all finish ahead of the Red Birds.
4. Aaron Cook will throw the next no-hitter – Admittedly, this is a complete crapshoot. But in the long line of the Anibel Sanchez, Wilson Alvarez and Bud Smiths of the world, Cook fits the bill as a relative nobody who has the stuff to get it done. Consider in 14 of his 32 starts in 2006, he went more than 7 innings, and it’s clear he's got the stamina. Fresh off a CG, 5 hits, 1 run performance last week over the Friars, Cook will soon add his name to the no-hit list. Of course, playing his home games in Coors means the feat will come on the road.
5. Alex Rodriguez will be the AL MVP – Honestly, is there another player seemingly more motivated by money than the 3B? Big year. Big contract… and a likely move to the West Coast.
6. Arizona will win the NL West – If you haven't had a chance to watch the Baby 'Backs in action, you should. Young team. Fun team. Most importantly, a talented team in a division where most of the other teams can't say the same.
7. Barry Bonds will ruin my birthday – The homer king-to-be will break Hammerin' Hank's record on August 4 in San Diego, the same day yours truly gets a year older and a year wiser. He won't break it by the All-Star break… but three weeks after sounds about right.
8. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! – Ok, so the lovable losers from the North side won't win the World Series this year (that will actually happen next year – the 100-year anniversary of their last title), but behind arguably the best lineup in the NL and with a proven Carlos Zambrano and a soon-to-be-proven K machine Rich Hill anchoring the staff, Sweet Lou will get his team into the playoffs as division champs just one year removed from the NL's worst record. Watch.
9. Carl Pavano will lead the Yankees in wins – More of a testament to the Bombers' craptacular rotation than to Pavano's less-than-devastating repertoire, but C-Pav has the talent to hit the 15-win mark. Chien-Ming Wang gets to start his year on the DL. Mike Mussina hasn't topped (nice catch G.C.) 15 wins since 2003 and isn't getting any younger. Kei Igawa is a work in progress and something about Andy Pettitte just doesn't feel right. Pavano has been a trainer's room regular, but don't forget this is a guy who went 18-8 with a 2.99 ERA in 2003 for Florida.
10. Get ready for the return of the Tomahawk Chop! – Why, you ask? Because glory is returning to the ATL and a World Series title is coming with it. John Smoltz continues to defy father time. Tim Hudson worked hard in the offseason to make his dismal 2006 a distant memory. We all know about Andruw and Chipper (who perennially give new meaning to keeping up with the Joneses) but the biggest reason the Braves are ready to make a run is....Bob Wickman. I know. Even as I write this the word “Really?” keeps ringing in my head. But it’s true. Tricky Wickie has been lights out since coming over from Cleveland. How ‘bout a telling stat, you say? Well alrighty then. Last year in 1-run games, the Braves were 18-31. During that time, a plethora of closers took their turns at playing “I Can Blow Harder Than You Can.” But when Big Bob came over in July, he recorded 18 saves in the second half by his rotund and lonesome self. That my friends is what we in the business call a difference maker.
So there you have it. The first and certainly not the last bold predictions from the world of sports. If you agree, I'd love to hear about it. If you disagree, I'd love to hear even more. But if you got an opinion, back it up.
"Have a take. Don't get run."
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2 comments:
"Mike Mussina hasn't reached the 15-win plateau since 2003"
Last year, 2006. He was 15-7, the best pitcher on his team and actually one of the best seasons among all pitchers.
He dropped off considerably in the 2nd half and looks terrible this year though. So your prediction might be right.
Ryan Howard! How dare you sir? This guy could be the best legitimate young slugger since......
When you consider that a majority of sluggers were juicing in the last ten to fifteen years, what Howard did in the last one and a half seasons is nothing short of spectacular. Now, I probably don't do as much research as you, but I am going to assume that Howard was tested regularly for perfromance enhancing drugs because of the state that the league is currently in. Who was they last person to even hit fifty Homeruns that was not the subject of a league-wide steriod scandal. I can tell you, (off the top of my head) a few young sluggers out of Seattle.... Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Howard's start to his major league career is phenomenal. You can't take that away from him.
Lets not forget that Pat Burrell hit behind him in 2006. Burrell has consistently hit about 25 longballs a year over the past six seasons, and isn't exactly the guy to pitch to. I mean, Burrell could go to at least five-to-ten major league teams and hit clean up, including the Dodgers.
And (I did do my research here), I checked the box score last night, and who hit fifth behind RHoward? Burrell. Thats who. Look for Howard to legitimately challenge 58 HRs this year and make a another run at 60.
Or my name isn't bandito.
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