Sunday, September 30, 2007

Magic Number Countdown: CUBS WIN, CUBS WIN!



Maybe you didnt hear me...

THE CUBS WIN!

2007 NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL CHAMPS.

WORST TO FIRST.

For as many awful predictions as I've subjected you to in my short history, every once in awhile, I get one right.

Written on April 10, 2007 as part of my 10 Bold Predictions For MLB 2007:

"Cubs Win! Cubs Win! – Ok, so the lovable losers from the North side won't win the World Series this year (that will actually happen next year – the 100-year anniversary of their last title), but behind arguably the best lineup in the NL and with a proven Carlos Zambrano and a soon-to-be-proven K machine Rich Hill anchoring the staff, Sweet Lou will get his team into the playoffs as division champs just one year removed from the NL's worst record. Watch."

And you can throw the records out the window...if you gave me my choice of NL playoff teams to face in the first round, I'll take the Diamonbacks every time.

Ironically, also written on April 10, 2007:

"Arizona will win the NL West – If you haven't had a chance to watch the Baby 'Backs in action, you should. Young team. Fun team. Most importantly, a talented team in a division where most of the other teams can't say the same."

We head to Phoenix on Wednesday.
Big Z vs Webb

After that, AZ plans to throw Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez in Games 2 and 3.

Couldn't be happier.

GO CUBS GO!

Magic Number Countdown: And Then There Was One!



You'll have to forgive me. I was out of town for the final weekend. But in the name of finishing what I started...

Cubs win on Friday night to reduce the number to ONE.

We place our faith in the Padres to hand the Brewers a defeat.

Would it happen???

Friday, September 28, 2007

NFL Week 4 Predictions: Takin' The Show On The Road

I went 4-12 last week. On the year that puts me at 18-30.

What am I really supposed to say to that? Can’t say much. So let’s get to this week’s picks… I’m taking the show on the road literally this week – I’m taking the away team in 11 out of 14 games.

I'm sick of having Giants on my site. I need to beat Craig this week (0-2-1 on season)...

(my pick in ALL CAPS)

RAVENS (-4.5) at Cleveland
BEARS (-2.5) at Lions
Packers at VIKINGS (+.5)
TEXANS (-2.5) at Falcons
JETS (-3.5) at Bills
RAIDERS (+4.5) at Miami
RAMS (+12.5) at Dallas
TAMPA BAY (+.5) at Carolina
NINERS (+1.5) at Seahawks
BRONCOS (+10.5) at Colts
Chiefs at CHARGERS (-14.5)
STEELERS (-4.5) at Cards
EAGLES (-2.5) at Giants
Patriots at BENGALS (+7.5)

LOCK OF THE WEEK (2-1 on the year): Not based on pure rooting interest or a desperate need to win a game against the freaking Lions, this pick is based solely on my faith in what will happen in Chapter One of the Brian Griese Era in Chicago. Our D is banged up. Watch us come out to play on that side of the ball and send a message. Just a hunch, plus the Lions can’t stop anyone on the other side... BEARS (-2.5) at Detroit.

TOUGHEST CALL: So, here’s the odd thing about this category. If it’s possible to rate a win-loss mark in a “what’s the one game I wouldn’t touch” category, I’m 3-0 this season. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. But for what it’s worth, each week the team I thought was most in danger of not covering has not even come close to covering. Not once. So feel free to see who I take, and take the OTHER team. Maybe I should just take my own advice. Team I’m least confident in covering this week is the RAMS. Dallas O is nasty. St. Louis is having all kinds of issues. But a dozen-and-a-half is still a lot of points. I’d like to think the Rams lose by 10. They could easily lose by 24.

...

I’m headed for the far-off city of Grass Valley, CA this weekend – Shelly’s folks are throwing us an engagement party. Should be a lot of fun!

And in case you hadn’t noticed, this is a HUGE weekend for the Cubs. We’re 2 games up. 3 games at Cincy to close the year. Brewers close with 3 against the Wild Card-hoping-but-our-coach-Jeff Gillooly’d- our-starting-OF Padres.

However my prospects of cable TV or internet appear bleak for this weekend, so if you happen to come across any Cubs or Padres scores, feel free to shoot the old text message over.

Let’s face it -- if you’re reading this, you know my number.

I’m not used to meaningful baseball during the last week of September. This is pretty fun.

One win from us. One from the Friars sometime in the next 3 days. That’s all I’m asking for (at least for now).

GO CUBS GO...

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Magic Number Countdown: Two For The Money!


Marlins 6, Cubs 4
Padres 9, Brewers 5

Second day in a row, Cubs lose.... Brewers lose.

Which means magic number goes shrinky.

I've never been a bigger Friars fan than I will be this weekend.

Six games between the two teams total left. One Cubs win and one Padres win is all I need.

Is that too much to ask?

Magic Number Countdown: Three's Company!



Cubs lose.

Brewers lose.

And that's all that matters.

The magic number continues to shrink!!

Monday, September 24, 2007

NFL Prediction Battle: Week 3 Results



And this is why I stopped betting on the NFL many years ago.

Another craptastic week of picks.

I went 4-12.

Craig went 6-10.

On the season I'm 18-30 overall and 0-2-1 against Craig.

Two weeks in a row a Giant has (dis)graced my site.

This HAS to change next week.


HIT:
COLTS (-5.5) at Houston
BENGALS (+3.5) at Seattle
TITANS (+5.5) at Saints
PANTHERS (-4.5) at Falcons


MISSED:
Arizona at BALTIMORE (-7.5)
RAMS (+4.5) at Tampa Bay
NINERS (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
CHARGERS (-3.5) at Green Bay
VIKINGS (+2.5) at Chiefs
Miami at JETS (-3.5)
LIONS (+6.5) at Eagles
Browns at RAIDERS (-3.5)
Giants at REDSKINS (-4.5)
Cowboys at BEARS (-3.5)
Jaguars at BRONCOS (-3.5)
BILLS (+14.5) at Patriots

LOCK OF THE WEEK: BRONCOS.... I'm now 2-1 on my Locks. Dammit.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Magic Number Countdown: The Final Four


Cubs 8, Pirates 0

Trying real hard not to get too excited yet.

This has been the most exciting season in my 31 years of watching baseball.

Marlins, Reds...we're coming for you!

Magic Number Countdown: Fab Five


The Braves score 4 in the 7th!

Braves 7, Brewers 4

All of Wrigley Field was doing the Tomahawk Chop! It was one of the coolest things I've ever seen in sports.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

NFL Week 3 Predictions

As we enter Week 3 of the NFL Pick 'Em Battle with Craig from Johnny Wishbone, I’m reminded of the opening line from the old Phish album "Slip, Stitch and Pass"...

"Some good points. Some bad points. But it all seems to work out."

Week 1 brought some good points as I went 10-6.

Week 2 was forgettable-at-best, bringing on the bad points with a 4-12 mark.

On the year, I’m 14-18….and 0-1-1 in the battle with Craig.

Yet I have a feeling in Week 3 I get back in track and it will all work itself out.

So with that, here’s my picks… I’m feeling a lot of road dogs this week. Just a hunch.

As always, my pick is in ALL CAPS….

Arizona at BALTIMORE (-7.5)
RAMS (+4.5) at Tampa Bay
NINERS (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
CHARGERS (-3.5) at Green Bay
VIKINGS (+2.5) at Chiefs
Miami at JETS (-3.5)
COLTS (-5.5) at Houston
LIONS (+6.5) at Eagles
Browns at RAIDERS (-3.5)
BENGALS (+3.5) at Seattle
PANTHERS (-4.5) at Falcons
Giants at REDSKINS (-4.5)
Cowboys at BEARS (-3.5)
TITANS (+5.5) at Saints
Jaguars at BRONCOS (-3.5)
BILLS (+14.5) at Patriots

LOCK OF THE WEEK: BRONCOS (-3.5) -- I’m 2-0 on my locks so far, feel free to hop on the train.
TOUGHEST CALL: LIONS (+6.5)
3-TEAM PARLAY: BRONCOS, BENGALS, CHARGERS

MORE Magic Number Countdown



Braves 4, Brewers 3 in 11 innings

Gotta love being able to update this countdown THREE times in one day (even if one was from last night's action).

GO CUBS GO!

Magic Number Countdown (9/22/07)



Cubs 9, Pirates 5

And Sam Fuld with the double play of the year crashing into the bricks in right field to make the catch and getting the ball back into first for the DP. Amazing!

We've got 7 games left. Brewers have 9.

Smoltz takes the mound in 10 minutes against Gallardo.... LETS GO BRAVES!!!

One Day At A Time



Cubs 13, Pirates 8
Brewers 4, Braves 1

I've never been a bigger Braves fan than I am right now! LET'S GO SMOLTZ ON SATURDAY!

Friday, September 21, 2007

Poker Night Recap: Burbank Quad City (9/19/07)

Who: Ellner, MJ, Neal, Holt, Marlin, EA, Blasucci
Where: Mr. & Mrs. Ellner’s
Special Guests: Murphy, Yong and some delicious chili!


Ok, so a couple of days delayed on this. But I promised Neil the recap would return. So who am I to not deliver???

Anyway, here’s what I can remember…

On most nights, if you’re sitting at the table with trips, a straight, flush or even a full house, you’re not thinking CAN I WIN, it’s HOW MUCH CAN I WIN.

Then there’s Wednesday night at the Ellner estate where if you weren’t sporting a boat or some Quads, you best be careful.

The tone was set early.

One hand removed from Ellner taking most of my money on a hand I can’t even remember, I get 33.

Ellner sitting on a Jack, something.

Board comes J, J, 3, blank, blank.

He hits his trips. I flop the boat.

He goes ALL IN to try and take the chips he didn’t get from me on the first hand.

Obviously I call.

Big win for me. But would there be more to come?

A few hands go by... about 20 minutes later, Holty has 800 in front of him. Decides to go all in for 700. Clearly, he has got some big plans for those 2 little red chips still sitting in front of him.

Fold all around… I’ve got Ace, Six. I certainly can’t let him just buy the pot.

I make him put his last 2 chips in there.

He flips 10, 5 offsuit. Obviously, he hits a five on the river.

Nice lil’ double up to keep him in the game.


Play continues… bunch of small wins here and there… a couple big ones… then Marlin finally decides to play a hand (dude has more patience than a priest in a strip club).

Marlin goes all in for his last 1175. I’ve got J, 10 suited… I make the call on the sheer fact I’ve been running pretty hot for the last hour. Neal also calls behind me and suggests we check it down.

I don’t commit to it, but the fact that he said it makes me feel pretty good about my chances.

J hits the flop as the high card. Remains the high card. I know I’ve got Neil beat…it’s just a question of what Marlin is sitting on.

We check it down.

Marlin has 55. Neal has nothing.

I add about 4 grand to my stack. Marlin rebuys.

But just as all good things must come to an end… so does my streak of hitting big hands and getting paid off.

A heads up hand between me and MJ.

Flop comes three SIXES.

I’m sitting on K5.

I check. He bets. No way he’s got a pair or he checks to so he can draw me in. I call.

Turn is K… I hit my boat. Now I’m praying he’s holding a pair of anything except Aces.

It turns out I was right… he wasn’t holding a pair.

He was however holding the fourth six.

MJ doubles up for about six grand…huge freakin hand.

Well played kid.

And it was the third time quads showed up at the table. A lotta big cards flowing around that night… and a lotta heartache as a result.

Fast forward to final 3… Me, Ellner and Marlin.

I’m dominating chip leader coming out of the break. It held up for awhile. I pulled pockets Aces twice in four hands to knock Marlin out.

Then it’s down to me and Ellner, and this is where my stack begins to diminish.

We play a few meaningless hands.

Blinds are 500/1000. I’ve got about 30K. Ellner’s got about 15K.

I get A6. I go all in pre flop. He calls and flips A5.

For the second time that night, a 5 hits the river to beat me. All of a sudden, Ellner is dominating chip leader.

We play a few more hands and then the biggie.

I’ve got J5 off suit.

Board comes 44Q with 2 spades.

I check. He checks.

Turn is another Q.

I check, he checks.

River is 7 of clubs.

So we’re looking at 44QQ7 with three clubs that I’m not even paying attention to.

The fact that he checked it the whole way without taking a stab at it to me means he definitely doesn’t have a higher pair than the 4s. Definitely doesn’t have a 4 or a Q for a boat. I’m actually thinking the two pair on the board with my Jack kicker could be good… and if not, I don’t think he’s got a decent enough hand to risk doubling me up and giving me back the chip lead.

I go ALL IN!

As Marlin and Yong can attest, he sits for awhile thinking about it and says he’s positive I have a Q or a 4 in my hand.

He flips his cards over as he's thinking to show me his hand… he’s sitting on a flush.

My heart starts racing. I’m toast.

But he keeps saying he knows I have the boat. Yong says she thinks I do too and tells him to fold.

FOR GOD’S SAKES, LISTEN TO YOUR WIFE!!!!

He then asks everyone’s favorite question…

WILL YOU SHOW ME IF I FOLD?

Now 99.9% of the time, if you want someone to fold, you say YES.

I don’t say anything at first. And then say, BECAUSE YOUR WIFE COOKED US DINNER, I’LL SHOW YOU IF YOU FOLD.

For whatever fuking reason, he says that tells him I’m bluffing.

He calls. I lose. I want to cry knowing I had him that close to laying down a flush on a stone cold bluff. But moments like that is why we all play the game, right?

I’m down to about 600 but manage to double up a few times and soon I’m back to about 3 or 4 grand. Of course, Ellner has about 30 grand so I’ve got a LONG way to go.

I jokingly offer a chop after yet another double up to bring me to about 7 or 8 grand.

He says no.

I say what about a skewed chop…there’s 520 in the pot, I offer a 300/220 split.

He says only if he gets the official title as WINNER and when everyone asks, I say he got first.

Seems fair to me. I ponder it over a fresh baked brownie and some milk to wash down the delicious bowl of chili Yong made.

I finish my brownie. Finish my milk.

Collect 220 and call it a night.

1st – Ellner
2nd - EA

One More Down...



...to go!!!

Braves 3, Brewers 1

GO BRAVES!!!

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The Magic Number...


Cubs 3, Reds 2

Astros 5, Brewers 4

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

NFL Prediction Battle: Week 2 Results

Man, I thought a tie left an awful taste.

Compared to this week’s results, I’d gladly welcome another tie. When your opponent goes 5-11 in his picks, chances are you’ll be chalking up a W in your pool.

That is, of course, unless you put up a horrendous 4-12 mark in Week 2. Uggggggggh.

I could look at a few games I was wavering on and went the wrong way, and say "should've, would've, could've." But let’s be honest, when you go 4-12, it just doesn’t matter. I couldn’t win an all-girls pool with those numbers.

As a result, my counterpart in this weekly battle Craig of Johnny Wishbone & I have decided that each week the loser will post a pic of the other guy’s favorite team on their blogs.

That will explain why Eli "My Daddy Loves Matty Leinart More Than Me" Manning is gracing this site.

I look forward to next week when Craig will undoubtedly find an embarrassing Bears photo up on his site.

Until then, here’s a look at arguably the worst week I’ve ever had in a Pick ‘Em pool...


HIT: (it’s a short list, sigh…)
PACKERS (+2.5) at Giants
VIKINGS (+3.5) at Detroit
Jets at RAVENS (-1.5)
COWBOYS (-3.5) at Miami

MISSED: (sadly, a much longer list….)
Atlanta at JACKSONVILLE (-11.5)
BUFFALO (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
BENGALS (-7.5) at Cleveland
Houston at CAROLINA (-7.5)
COLTS (-8.5) at Tennessee
SAINTS (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Niners at RAMS (-3.5)
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals
Chiefs at BEARS (-13.5)
Raiders at BRONOCS (-10.5)
CHARGERS (+4.5) at Patriots
Redskins at EAGLES (-7.5)

TOTAL: 4-12

CRAIG’S TOTAL: 5-11

RESULT: A pathetic barn-burner….but Craig wins. We’re both much better than this, I swear.

YEAR-TO-DATE STANDINGS: EA 0, CRAIG 1 (and 1 tie)

EA’S LOCK OF THE WEEK: Packers (+2.5). This might have been the lock of the season. I’m 2-0 on my locks so far!

With that and a quarter, I could make a phone call.

Monday, September 17, 2007

1 Down, 12 To Go

What’s the only thing better than 13?

Well, in this case it’s 12.

That’s the magic number for the Cubs!

With 11 games left on the schedule, the Chicago Cubs’ magic number to clinch the division over the Brewers is 12.

Let me repeat, the Chicago Cubs have a magic number.

That might not sound like anything to celebrate, but come on people, this is the Cubs.

I could count the times we’ve had an actual magic number on four fingers in my lifetime.

Coming into Monday, it was 13. After putting up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the reds 7-6 at Wrigley, that number shrinks to 12.

Yeah, Milwaukee won. Who cares!

Yeah, we’re only 1 game up. Who cares!

We don’t play an above .500 team the rest of the season. This is ours to win. If we give it away, there’s no pointing fingers. It’s our fault.

But forget that shit, THIS IS OURS TO WIN!

LET’S DO THIS!

Just like Hevad Khan in this year’s WSOP….. BULLDOZER BABY! I DON’T CARE WHO THEY ARE! JUST BEAT ‘EM!

LET’S DO THIS CUBBIES!

Saturday, September 15, 2007

NFL Week 2 Predictions

They say two is better than one. Beers. Boobs. Twix. Who am I to argue?

Week 1 of the NFL featured a heartbreaking loss to the Chargers for my beloved Bears. It was the most expensive yet awesome 3 hours of pain I’ve ever put myself through in history sitting 20 rows off the field…and the first hangover I’ve ever experienced while STILL drinking (how does that even happen?!?).

I went 2-2 in my fantasy leagues. Well, really 2-1, but Shelly also lost in her girls league, so who am I kidding… I went 2-2. Hey, it’s not like she’s the one who went out and grabbed Patrick Crayton off the waiver wire…. Unless any of the other girls in the league are reading this. In which case, yes, it was all Shelly.

Week 1 also featured the debut of the That’s What HE Said vs. Johnny Wishbone Pick ‘Em Pool, and after 16 games were in the book – it was a tie as both Craig and I went 10-6.

So with that, I offer my picks for Week 2, along with my Lock of the Week (which I nailed last week) and my 3-team parlay of the Week (which the Broncos cost me last week).

Let’s hope there’s no kissing-your-sister feeling after this week’s results. You’re going down Rubes!!

My picks are in ALL CAPS…


Atlanta at JACKSONVILLE (-11.5)
BUFFALO (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
BENGALS (-7.5) at Cleveland
PACKERS (+2.5) at Giants
Houston at CAROLINA (-7.5)
COLTS (-8.5) at Tennessee
SAINTS (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Niners at RAMS (-3.5)
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals
VIKINGS (+3.5) at Detroit
COWBOYS (-3.5) at Miami
Chiefs at BEARS (-13.5)
Jets at RAVENS (-1.5)
Raiders at BRONOCS (-10.5)
CHARGERS (+4.5) at Patriots
Redskins at EAGLES (-7.5)

LOCK OF THE WEEK: PACKERS
TOUGHEST CALL: CAROLINA
3-TEAM PARLAY: PACKERS, BENGALS, COWBOYS

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

NFL Week 2: The Early Bird Gets Paid

Sunday might still be a few days away, but it’s never too early to look at the lines.

I won’t get into my full slate of picks until later this week (after all, I don’t want to tip my hand to the Johnny Wishbone crew), but for all you junkies out there who just can’t stay away from the early action, here’s my early favorites for Lock of the Week... (as always, my picks are in all caps)...

PACKERS (+1) at Giants – Let me make sure I have this straight… The G-Men are likely playing without their starting QB, their starting RB and a D that just got lit for half-a-hundo… and they are favored to beat anyone?!? And not just anyone, but arguably the greatest QB of my generation and a Defense that I keep hearing people say will be a surprise this year (by the way, how many people does it take to dub someone a “sleeper” before they are no longer classified as such? Just wondering).

But where was I…

Oh yeah, the Giants stink. Their own fans will tell you as such. I even know one lifelong diehard Giant fan (I won’t mention names, but it rhymes with Greg Grubenstien) who already has dreams of Darren McFadden, which as he knows would only be possible with the league’s worst record and subsequent top pick in next year’s draft.

Such high hopes after Week 1? Very optimistic indeed.

Combine all this with the Packers coming off a nice win against an above average Philly team in Week 1, and how the Cheeseheads are underdogs is mind boggling.

If you like early action, take it now before Eli is officially out and it swings four points the other way.

...

BENGALS (-6.5) at Browns – I’m typically not a fan of road teams giving up big spreads, especially in a rivalry game. Then there’s this game.

I’ve got two sets of numbers for you… 34-17 and 30-0.

Those were the scores of the Bengals/Browns games last year… a Bengals sweep.

So the Bengals put up 27 on what many call the NFL’s best defense in Week 1, while holding the Ravens to 20… and the Browns are gonna come within a touchdown how again?

Whether its Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Tim Couch or Bernie Kosar, I can’t imagine it will matter.

With the Over/Under set at 41.5, that means the experts see a 24-17 game.

I’m thinking more along the lines of 34-13.

Check back later this week to see which one of these beauties gets my pick as the Lock of the Week!

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

NFL Prediction Battle: Week 1 Results

Alright, Week 1 of the NFL is in the books, and my good friend Craig of Johnny Wishbone fame has challenged me to a duel.

Silly man.

Obviously, I accept.

Sadly, Week 1 wasn’t as stellar the beginning as I hoped. But still not too bad...

HIT:
Aints at INDY (-5.5)
Chiefs at HOUSTON (-3)
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) at Cleveland
TITANS (+7) at J'ville
Falcons at VIKINGS (-3)
Bucs at SEAHAGS (-6)
LIONS (+2.5) at Raiders
Giants at COWBOYS (-6)
Cards at NINERS (-3)
Miami at REDSKINS (-2.5) (**note: I originally picked this game at –3, but to make sure Craig and I are using same spreads, we went with –2.5. Hey, if I took them giving 3, I’m obviously taking them –2.5)


MISSED:
DENVER (-3) at Buffalo
Panthers at RAMS (-1)
EAGLES (-3) at Green Bay
Pats at JETS (+6.5)
BEARS (+6) at Chargers
RAVENS (+2.5) at Bengals


TOTAL: 10-6

CRAIG’S TOTAL: 10-6

WEEK 1 RESULT: A TIE (what is this, hockey?!?)

EA’S LOCK OF THE WEEK: PITT (-4.5) – nailed it!

Check back all year for the That’s What HE Said vs. Johnny Wishbone battle!

May the best Jew win!

Saturday, September 8, 2007

NFL Week 1 Predictions

It's finally here!

I finally get to wash that bitter taste left by the Super Bowl out of my mouth.

That's right, it's time for some football!!!

I'm on the road this weekend as I travel to not-so-far-away San Diego to watch my Bears take on the Chargers on opening weekend. I'm not entirely optimistic about the pending outcome, but couldn't be happier about attending my first ever opening day football game!

So before it's time for kickoff, I want to get my Week 1 Picks in the books so you can all be witness to the sheer genius.

I'm going to do this every week and keep a running tally, a la the Swami -- except with a lot more hair and hopefully a lot more accuracy.

So here we go... my picks are in all caps...

Chiefs at HOUSTON (-3)
DENVER (-3) at Buffalo
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) at Cleveland
TITANS (+7) at J'ville
Panthers at RAMS (-1)
EAGLES (-3) at Green Bay
Falcons at VIKINGS (-3)
Miami at REDSKINS (-3)
Pats at JETS (+6.5)
Bucs at SEAHAGS (-6)
BEARS (+6) at Chargers (a Super Bowl team getting 6 pts in Week 1???)
LIONS (+2.5) at Raiders
Giants at COWBOYS (-6)
RAVENS (+2.5) at Bengals
Cards at NINERS (-3)


LOCK OF THE WEEK: PITTSBURGH (-4.5)
TOUGHEST CALL: REDSKINS
3-TEAM PARLAY OF THE WEEK: PITT, BRONCOS, VIKINGS