Samsonite... I Was Way Off!

Ok, so the Nostradamus of the NCAA, I am not. But actually, I wasn’t too far off. I had the top 8 seeds pegged, with the exception of UNC and Wisconsin flip-flopped as 1 and 2 seeds.

If Wisco beats OSU in the Big 10 title game, I’m certain they get the 1 seed nod over UNC. It didn’t happen. I’ll settle for 3 out of 4 on the #1 seeds (FLA, KU, OSU).

As far as the 2 seeds, not bad…other than the aforementioned Tar Heels. Swap UNC for Wisco, and I nail all 4.

But projections are like [fill in the blank] – everyone has one and most of them stink.

So now that the dance card is filled out, let’s take a look at who has the best shot to two-step all the way to Atlanta.

MIDWEST REGION:

I’ve already heard a lot of talk about what the toughest region is, and I’m shocked no one is talking about the Midwest. The top 3 seeds all have a shot to cut down the nets and Florida is the best team in the country.

Shush, don’t argue. They are.

In my earlier post, I said Wisconsin and UF would both make it to the Final 4. Obviously that won’t happen now thanks to the committee. The Gators are deep. Solid at all positions and I love Billy Donovan.

Meanwhile, the Badgers have one of the premiere scorers in the country in Alando Tucker (although he didn’t show up for the Big 10 title game, he’ll bounce back) and Wisconsin has faced Ohio State (who many other prognosticators consider the best team in the country) three times… losing by a bucket the first time, winning the second before failing to show up the third time. Still, that’s invaluable experience against a premiere team and that can only help come tourney time.

1st Round - Florida, Arizona, Butler, Maryland, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ga. Tech, Wisconsin

2nd Round – Fla over Zona, Butler beats Maryland, Oregon beats ND, Wisco over the Jackets

Sweet 16 – Florida over Butler, Wisconsin over Oregon (this will be one of the best games of the tourney – mark it down)

Florida beats Wisconsin in a 1vs2 matchup and heads to Atlanta to defend their title.

SOUTH REGION:

1st Round – OSU, Xavier, Tennessee, Albany, Louisville, A&M, Nevada, Memphis

2nd Round – OSU over Xavier, Tenn over Albany, A&M over L’ville, Nevada over Memphis

Sweet 16 – OSU over Tennessee, Nevada over A&M

Ohio State walks through this bracket on their way to the Final Four and you’ll be saturated with talk of Greg Oden as the second coming… all the while, no one will mention the subpar competition he’s faced in this region.

Notes:
- I said this morning it’s hard to argue against Memphis’ 30-3 record. Pretty hard to find a flaw in winning 22 in a row. Don’t care. Nevada pulls the upset in Round 2. Hopefully Coach Calipari can make it out of the building without running into John Chaney.

- One thing is for sure, Ohio State is not exactly licking their chops at the prospect of a rematch with Tennessee in the Sweet 16. The Vols went into Columbus on January 13 and lost by a single bucket. They pulled Oden away from the hoop all game with high pick-and-rolls and exploited the vacated lane. Nevertheless, Thad Matta’s crew makes the right adjustments and makes sure this time it’s nowhere near as close.

EAST REGION:

1st Round – UNC, Marquette, USC, Texas, Vandy, Oral Roberts, BC, Georgetown

2nd Round – UNC, Texas, Vandy, Georgetown

Sweet 16 – Texas over UNC, Hoyas over Vandy

Georgetown just has the look of a team on a mission. They are big. They are quick and they are physical. The Hoyas (and their push you down and take your milk money mentality) head to the Final Four.

Notes:
- The Hoyas have made the Sweet 16 in 4 of the last 5 NCAA tourneys they’ve appeared in.

- From the department of “Take it for what it’s worth”… Michigan State has made the Sweet 16 in every odd year since 1999. Since it’s 2007 and my 1 semester of remedial college math tells me that this is another odd year, the Spartans would be a decent pick to advance. So why am I picking Marquette to send ‘em home in Round 1? A hunch. For the record, I think they can give UNC a run for their money in Round 2.

- Most are calling Vandy’s 6 seed a gift for a team that lost to the likes of Furman and Appalachian State in the regular season. But I love teams that are getting trashed by the media come tourney time. If you ask me, Cinderella’s slipper fits nicely on the Commodores’ hightops… at least until they run into the Hoyas in the Sweet 16.

- Arkansas over USC is becoming a popular 5 vs 12 upset. Arkansas was the very last team to secure an at-large bid and most say they didn’t deserve it. Have I mentioned I love teams getting dogged in the press? Yeah, not this time. Wanna know why the Razorbacks lose to USC? Arkansas has been knocked out in the first round of their last 3 tourneys. Ouch.

WEST REGION:

1st Round – Kansas, Nova, Illinois, Southern Illinois, Duke, Pitt, Gonzaga, UCLA

2nd Round – Kansas, Illinois, Duke, UCLA

Sweet 16 – Kansas over Illinois, UCLA over Duke

I think this is the easiest bracket to pick. Neither Kansas nor UCLA face a sniff of competition until they meet each other in the Elite 8. While I’ve never been a big Jayhawks believer, I’m just not sold on UCLA. Rock Chalk Jayhawk all the way to the ATL.

Notes:
- In their last 2 tournament appearances, Villanova has been eliminated by the eventual champ: UNC in ’05 and FLA in ’06. If the same holds true, the Jayhawks will be cutting down the nets. Hey, I’ve heard of crazier things.
- Picking the Fighting Illini over VaTech as the perennial 5vs12 upset might seem like a popular pick. Guess what, it’s a lock. Illinois has won at least 1 game in 8 straight tourneys. First round exits just aren’t their style. Won’t happen this year either.

- In my bracket preview, I said Duke was no better than an 8 or 9 seed. Well, it’s amazing what the name on front of the uniform will get you these days. The committee bestowed the Blue Devils with a generous 6 seed. And while there’s still no question this team is nowhere near the Dukies of old, I’m hard pressed to bet against Coach K in the early rounds. Before the brackets came out, I said Duke gets bounced in Round 2. I should’ve waited on that one. They’ll beat Pitt to advance to the Sweet 16 before UCLA ends their run. Why am I back tracking? The Blue Devils have made the Sweet 16 in nine straight tourneys. Make it 10.

- Was watching ESPN’s “experts” fill out their brackets and noticed Doug Gottlieb penciled in UNLV in the Elite 8. Clearly, what the diminutive Dougy lacks in size… he ain’t making it up in expertise. The Rebels are soft and play in a weak-at-best conference. Add in the fact that UNLV has won a tournament game since 1991 and I’ll stand by my first round exit for the Rebels. (Where’s Anderson Hunt when you need him?!?)

FINAL FOUR:

If you’re still with me on all of this, first of all I thank you. Second of all, it’s nice to know I’m not the only one without better things to do.

But since you’ve stayed with me this long, I’ll make this quick….

Florida over Kansas.
Georgetown over Ohio State.

The Gators are just too deep and too talented for Kansas. I really don’t think it will even be close.

In the other game, Greg “I Know I Look 40 Even Though I’m Only 20” Oden will finally meet his match in G’Town’s Roy Hibbert… and Hibbert will show the young buck a thing or two in the paint. Close game. Hoyas pull it out with some stops at the end.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

Ask anyone and they’ll agree – there is nothing harder in sports than repeating as champs. And college hoops could be the toughest of all.

Few teams can put together a 6-game winning streak, all on neutral courts, when it counts the most.

But the Gators showed they could do it with their run at the title last year, and now a year older, a year wiser and another year of playing together under their belts, I see no reason to think they can’t do it again.

In fact, picking them as repeat champs to me isn’t that much of a leap of faith. What’s really scary is only 1 important player is a senior (3 pt specialist Lee Humphrey). Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer are no joke when it’s crunch time.

I’d love to see them come back and make a run at a three-peat.